Births & deaths in wild horse country research project.

Welcome to the next segment in our research study, births and deaths of wild horses in albertas wild horse country.

There are many studies out there regarding wild foal birth and survival rates but when the estimates are so far apart and there are no year by year data to look through it makes it hard to understand or analyze. In order to properly determine these rates the wild horses in Alberta would have to be studied, in our opinion, for at least 3 -5 years, every year giving an average of how many foals live, how many die , what age they die at and what bands they are from. We can gain a lot of knowledge from knowing the differences in survival rates for each band. If I study mare #3 in our files from band #1 in the last 3 years she has had a 100% success rate 3 out of 3 (if her new foal makes it through to next spring) and mare #39 from band #5 would have a 1/4 success rate having every foal die the last previous 3 years only having one survive this year (hopefully into adulthood)

We need to elaborate more than just a percentage we need to dive into what EMZs have high fatality rates, what zones have low or minimal fatalities and a like wise similar study regarding each bands foal survival rates. We will spend the next few years following this research lead and see what we come up with, we will try to get some good statistics for everyone by the end of next winter.

For now lets talk about the data and research currently available by any quick Google search. Some studies suggest 8% -10% of foals survive their first year. Other studies suggest 16-24% of foals survive their first year, and a few studies suggest on good years, survival rates can reach upwards of 50%.

Let's put this into digestible terms. If we have 1000 mares viable for reproduction in Alberta, a survival rate of 8-10% would imply a mere 80-100 of these 1000 mares would have babies to live into the next year

At 16-24% that would estimate 160-240 foals live into their second year

And at 30-50% that would suggest 300-500 foals live into their second year.

Why are we looking at all these estimates and theories? Because it shows a huge gap in what we know as fact. We have a bunch of numbers thrown around and not a lot of facts. There is a huge gap between an annual 80 foal survival rate versus a 500 foal survival rate. A herd of a 50% survival rate will double its count within 2 years. Where as a count of 10-30 can self level and manage itself. From what we see, we do not believe, in our opinion that the survival rate is 8-10% we believe it is likely closer to the 20% range which would still be relatively low and qould still show self managmentwhile remaining truthful. Our aim here is to hopefully move away from estimates and guesses and get some true field research per band, per mare , per EMZ and have that available here within the next year or two. This will be an ongoing project of ours and we hope to get some understandable statistics, showing not just a percentage but horses and bands and year by year data. Stay tuned for more on that.

Now lets look similarly at the death rate, we have touched on the foal death rate, if the survival rate is 8-50% then the death rate for foals falls in the same 50-92 % death rate, but we have not yet addressed adult death rates, and deaths of unnatural causes.

When you look into the death rates on adult horses, there is little to no data available. Does this mean adult horses do not die? No. So where is the data for it?

I can report 1 adult horse death this year. A mare we called file #238 paradise. She belonged to band 37 in our files.

This was not one death but two, this mare died due to what appeared to be foaling complications, because this is a research study we will talk about the details surrounding her death so please skip if your queezy with this.

#238 paradise was a mare in our files for 6 months we would come across her every so often snap a picture and carry on. Her death was documented on may 6th 2025 at 10:38 am, she appeared to have passed through the night or late the previous evening, she had bloated and the birds had already began scavenging her carcass. We went hiking up to have a better look and see if I could see what caused this mares death (warning and disclaimer we do not recommend condone or advise anyone to ever walk up to a dead animal in the forest, do not do this. we are telling a personal story and we do not and are not recommending or suggesting that anyone do this)

Anyhow, knowing the dangerous situation we could be in, in the event this was a predators attack and kill site, we used extreme caution. Upon investigating, the mare had no apparent damage, besides one very evident detail. She was mid foaling. The foal had succumed to the death too. Now we can not say what caused her death, but we can speculate and assume that it was foaling related, her band stayed close by the following 2 days before finally accepting she was gone. (Something to note, wild horses, and most equids, is that they need to smell death often to register the death mentally. A family harem will stick close to a wild horse that died, usually until they smell the death, being the rot.) Which is why this band stuck close for 2 full days afterwards. This mare left behind her young yearling as well, luckily, old enough to survive on her own, as long as she sticks in her family band a few more years.

So deaths do occur in adult horses, even before old age, and I believe this should be statistically documented as well, we also can say “allegedly” at least 2 adult wild horses were euthanized by humans this 2025 season as well. Bringing the adult death toll up to at least 3.

And then add in how many wild horses are hit on back roads and highways across the western side of the province. Many. So should we not add these to the death statistics? We believe (and going forward in our research we will implement this approach) that there should be at least 5 areas looked at in regards to adult deaths in the wild horses

  1. Natural caused adult deaths

  2. Mare vs stallion death rates (for reproduction viability statistics)

  3. Human caused deaths (euthenzia, car accidents)

  4. Predator caused death

    If we can independently study each of these areas it would greatly increase our statistical accuracy relating to death rates. And help improve our over all knowledge regarding the wild horses. This is part of our mission to do, so please stay tuned, as we are on the ground doing our best to find the truth and transparency here. Please email us if you would like updates that may not yet be updated here or subscribe to pur monthly newsletter where we discuss any new finds relating to that months field research in wild horse country.

    Thanks for listening and reading and until next time- wild horse advocates

  5. Death per zone /EMZ - how many wild horses die every year in each zone, does some have higher rates? Do some have lower rates? It all matters.